US Producer Prices Jump 1.3% in September, Biggest Rise Since 2022: What the PPI Means for the Fed and Bitcoin
US producer prices rose 1.3% in September 2026, double the 0.6% forecast, lifting annual PPI inflation to 6.3%, the highest since 2022. Energy led, but services and core also accelerated.
Published October 15, 2026. A day after a hotter consumer inflation report, US producer prices jumped 1.3% in September, more than double the 0.6% economists expected and the biggest monthly rise since March 2022. Over 12 months, wholesale prices are up 6.3%. Energy did most of the damage, but services and the "core" measure also accelerated, a combination the Federal Reserve will weigh at its October 28 meeting.
Key takeaways
- Headline: the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.3% in September (seasonally adjusted), after +0.5% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on October 15 (BLS PPI release). Consensus: +0.6% (Investing.com).
- Annual rate: 6.3%, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022 (6.4%), up from 5.6% in August.
- Energy shock: final demand energy +10.8% and gasoline +20.3% on the month; final demand goods +2.6%, the largest rise since the series began in December 2009.
- Not only energy: services +0.8% (largest since April) and the core index excluding foods, energy and trade +0.5% on the month, 5.0% on the year.
- Bitcoin: about $80,270 on Coinbase at 13:34 UTC, −0.9% since the 8:30 a.m. ET release and −3.4% since the October 13 close, as two inflation surprises in two days raise the odds of another Fed hike.
The September PPI in numbers
| Index (seasonally adjusted) | Sept. 2026, m/m | Aug. 2026, m/m | 12 months (unadj.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final demand (headline) | +1.3% | +0.5% | 6.3% |
| Final demand less foods, energy and trade | +0.5% | +0.3% | 5.0% |
| Final demand goods | +2.6% | +1.1% | — |
| · Energy | +10.8% | +4.5% | — |
| · Foods | +1.2% | −0.3% | — |
| · Goods less foods and energy | +0.3% | +0.4% | — |
| Final demand services | +0.8% | +0.2% | — |
| · Trade margins | +1.4% | +0.2% | — |
| · Transportation and warehousing | +3.4% | +2.2% | — |
Source: BLS, PPI news release USDL 26-1576, Table A. August figures as revised in the September release.
Gasoline alone explains half of the rise in goods prices. Further up the supply chain, crude petroleum jumped 28.3% and unprocessed energy materials 22.2%, so part of the shock is still working its way toward finished goods. Not everything rose: egg prices fell 39.7%, and margins for fuel retailers dropped 30.3%, a sign that retailers absorbed part of the jump in pump prices for now.
Producer prices vs. consumer prices: the gap is widening
| September 2026 | CPI (consumers) | PPI (producers) |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly change | +0.6% | +1.3% |
| 12-month change | 3.7% | 6.3% |
| Energy, monthly | +5.2% | +10.8% |
| Gasoline, monthly | +9.1% | +20.3% |
| Core measure, 12 months | 2.6% (ex food and energy) | 5.0% (ex foods, energy and trade) |
| PPI minus CPI, 12 months | 2.6 points (2.2 points in August) | |
Sources: BLS CPI release of October 14 and PPI release of October 15, 2026. Comparison and gap calculated by BullishStation. The two indexes measure different baskets and are not directly comparable item by item.
Producer prices are not a forecast of consumer inflation, but a wide and growing gap means businesses are paying more than they are passing on. Either margins shrink, or more of the increase reaches shoppers in the coming months. Our analysis of the September CPI showed the same pattern: an energy-driven jump, with core consumer prices rising more slowly (2.6%).
Twelve months of wholesale inflation
| Month | PPI final demand, m/m | 12 months (unadj.) | Core (ex foods, energy, trade), 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | +1.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% |
| Aug 2026 | +0.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% |
| Jul 2026 | +0.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Jun 2026 | −0.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% |
| May 2026 | +0.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% |
| Apr 2026 | +1.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% |
| Mar 2026 | +0.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% |
| Feb 2026 | +0.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Jan 2026 | +0.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% |
| Dec 2025 | +0.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% |
| Nov 2025 | +0.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% |
| Oct 2025 | +0.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| Sep 2025 | +0.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Source: BLS, Table A of the September 2026 PPI release (May–August revised).
Our calculation: compounding the last three monthly readings (+0.2%, +0.5%, +1.3%) gives an annualized pace of about 8.3% for final demand prices, against 6.3% over 12 months. Wholesale inflation is accelerating, not fading. Annual PPI inflation has more than doubled in a year, from 3.0% in September 2025.
What it means for the Fed and Bitcoin
The Fed raised rates by a quarter point on September 16, 2026, to 3.75%–4.00% (see our Fed rate decisions tracker). After the CPI on October 14, futures priced about a 35% chance of another hike on October 28 (CME FedWatch, evening of October 14). A PPI this hot strengthens the case of officials who, like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, argue that policy must stay restrictive.
For Bitcoin, higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no yield; we explain the mechanism in how Fed interest rates affect Bitcoin. Spot ETF flows already turned negative on the day of the CPI: −261.4 million dollars for Bitcoin ETFs and −129.5 million for Ether ETFs on October 14 (ETF flows tracker).
| Bitcoin (Coinbase, UTC) | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 close | $83,102 | — |
| Oct 14 close (CPI day) | $81,566 | −1.8% |
| Oct 15, 12:30 (PPI release) | $80,964 | — |
| Oct 15, low after release | $80,000 | −1.2% vs release |
| Oct 15, 13:34 | $80,272 | −0.9% vs release; −3.4% vs Oct 13 |
Source: Coinbase Exchange market data (15-minute and daily candles). Changes calculated by BullishStation.
What to watch next
- October 28, 2026: FOMC decision, 2:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. Paris). Our preview: Bitcoin before the October FOMC.
- Energy prices: crude oil rose 28.3% at the producer level in September; any easing in October would show up first in gasoline.
- November 10: October CPI (8:30 a.m. ET), tracked on our CPI tracker. November 13: October PPI.
FAQ
What is the PPI?
The Producer Price Index measures the prices US producers receive for goods and services. It is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and often moves before consumer prices.
How much did producer prices rise in September 2026?
Final demand prices rose 1.3% from August and 6.3% from September 2025, according to the BLS.
Why did the PPI jump?
Mostly energy: final demand energy prices rose 10.8% and gasoline 20.3%. Services (+0.8%) and the core index (+0.5%) also accelerated.
Does a high PPI mean the Fed will raise rates?
Not automatically. The Fed targets consumer inflation (the PCE index), but a hot PPI after a hot CPI makes another hike more likely in market pricing. The decision is due on October 28.
When is the next PPI report?
The October 2026 PPI is scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the BLS.
More September data: US retail sales rise 0.8% in September, but gasoline did 71% of the work
Latest data: US import prices post their biggest annual rise since 2022 as industrial output jumps 0.7% (Oct. 16, 2026)
Related reading: US CPI September 2026 · CPI & Crypto: US inflation tracker · Fed rate decisions tracker · Hammack calls for restrictive policy · How Fed interest rates affect Bitcoin · Macroeconomics explained for crypto investors · Bitcoin ETF flows tracker
Sources: BLS, Producer Price Indexes – September 2026 (Oct. 15, 2026) · BLS, Consumer Price Index – September 2026 (Oct. 14, 2026) · Investing.com (consensus) · CME FedWatch · Coinbase Exchange · Farside Investors
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Crypto-assets are volatile and you can lose all of your capital.
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