Bitcoin Slips Toward $83,000 as Markets Weigh a Second Fed Hike Before Year-End
Bitcoin tests the bottom of its $83,500–$86,600 range as traders weigh the Fed's next move after September's first hike since 2023. Key levels and dates to watch.
Bitcoin traded near $83,150 on October 8, 2026, down about 2.8% on the day and testing the bottom of a range it has held since September 21. With the Federal Reserve's next decision due on October 28, traders are weighing whether the central bank will follow September's hike with another one before year-end.
Where Bitcoin stands
Since September 21, every daily close has landed between roughly $83,500 and $86,600. October opened at $83,624 on Binance. Two longer-term references sit below the market: the 50-day moving average near $78,300 and the 200-day near $75,300.
| Level | Price | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Range top | ~$86,600 | First hurdle for a breakout |
| Range bottom | ~$83,500 | Being tested today |
| 50-day average | ~$78,300 | Short-term trend support |
| 200-day average | ~$75,300 | Long-term trend line |
| Record high | ~$126,000 (Oct. 6, 2025) | About a third above today's price |
The Fed is the main event
On September 16, the FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, under Chair Kevin Warsh. Officials' median projection points to about one more quarter-point increase by the end of 2026. Prediction markets in mid-September priced roughly a 72% chance of no change at the October 27–28 meeting, with December seen as the likelier date for a second move.
The October meeting comes without updated economic projections, so the statement and Warsh's press conference will carry the signal. Why that matters for crypto is explained in our guide How Fed Interest Rates Affect Bitcoin. For context, compare with July, when Bitcoin traded near $65K ahead of the July decision.
"Uptober", with a warning
Bitcoin has gained in six of the last eight Octobers, with 2018 and 2025 the exceptions. Last year is the cautionary tale: four days after the October 6, 2025 record, a tariff shock triggered more than $19 billion of forced liquidations within 24 hours, and Bitcoin ended the month down 3.9%. The lesson concerns leverage more than direction.
Other drivers this month
- Regulation: the SEC's "Regulation Crypto Assets" comment period closes on October 20 (our explainer), while the CLARITY Act remains stalled after the September 15 Senate vote (what's next).
- Politics: the US midterm elections on November 3 fall less than a week after the Fed decision.
- Flows: watch spot ETF flows, exchange balances and stablecoin supply; see how institutional money flows shape price and what stablecoins are.
- Corporate treasuries: large holders remain a swing factor, as when Strategy sold $216M of Bitcoin in July.
What to watch
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Oct. 20 | SEC comment deadline, Regulation Crypto Assets |
| Oct. 27–28 | FOMC meeting; decision Oct. 28 at 2:00 p.m. ET |
| Nov. 3 | US midterm elections |
| Nov. 6 | October jobs report |
| Nov. 10 | October CPI |
| Dec. 8–9 | FOMC meeting with new projections |
A daily close above $86,600 or below $83,500 would set the tone for the rest of the month. New to the asset? Read our complete guide to Bitcoin.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
Related reading: Update: why Bitcoin is down today
Sources: CoinStats / Cryptoticker, Oct. 4, 2026 · CoinDesk Bitcoin price · MUFG Research, September FOMC recap · FedRateCalc, October 2026 meeting
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