On-Chain Metrics Explained: MVRV, SOPR and SSR, With Bitcoin's Realized Price Calculated

MVRV, SOPR and SSR explained with our own calculations: Bitcoin's realized price is about $54,020 and MVRV 1.45, while the stablecoin supply ratio sits at 5.27.

Nov 02, 2026 - 11:58

On-Chain Metrics Explained: MVRV, SOPR and SSR, With Bitcoin's Realized Price Calculated

Graphic-novel illustration of a Bitcoin coin split into glowing layers under a magnifying glass, with a scale weighing Bitcoin against stablecoins.

Published November 2, 2026. Data as of November 1, 2026 (Coin Metrics daily close, DefiLlama). Information only, not investment advice.

Price tells you what the last buyer paid. On-chain metrics try to tell you what everyone paid, and whether they are now selling at a profit or a loss. Because every Bitcoin transaction is recorded on a public ledger, analysts can estimate the cost basis of the whole market, something no stock exchange can show. This guide explains the three on-chain metrics investors quote most often, MVRV, SOPR and SSR, how each one is calculated, what the historical record says, and where they mislead. If you are new to Bitcoin itself, start with our complete Bitcoin guide.

Key takeaways

MVRV (market value to realized value) compares Bitcoin's market cap with the estimated price every coin last moved at. On November 1, 2026 it stood at 1.45 (Coin Metrics): the average holder is about 45% in profit.
Our calculation puts Bitcoin's realized price at about $54,020, against a market price of $78,135.
SOPR (spent output profit ratio) measures whether the coins that actually moved on a given day were sold at a profit (above 1) or at a loss (below 1).
SSR (stablecoin supply ratio) compares Bitcoin's market cap with the stablecoin supply. Our version, using DefiLlama's USD stablecoin total, was 5.27 on November 1, down from 8.30 at the October 2025 price peak.
Since 2014, MVRV has spent only 4.4% of days above 3 and 13.3% below 1. In our back-test, days below 1 were followed by a positive 12-month return 99% of the time, but the sample covers only a few cycles.

Why on-chain data exists at all

Bitcoin does not track account balances. It tracks unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs): discrete chunks of bitcoin created by one transaction and destroyed when they are spent by the next, as described in the Bitcoin white paper. Every UTXO carries a timestamp. If you know the price of bitcoin on the day each UTXO was created, you can estimate what its current owner paid for it. Sum that across all ~20.1 million coins and you get the market's aggregate cost basis. That single idea powers MVRV and SOPR.

The same ledger also shows new supply, which is why on-chain analysis pairs naturally with the issuance schedule explained in our Bitcoin halving guide and with miner economics covered in our mining difficulty and hashprice analysis.

MVRV: market value to realized value

Realized cap, the building block

Market cap values every coin at today's price. Realized cap values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain. Coin Metrics, which created the metric, describes it as valuing "each unit of supply at the price it last moved on-chain" (Coin Metrics, State of the Network #41). Coins lost in 2011 stay counted at 2011 prices, which makes realized cap far less sensitive to dormant or lost supply than market cap.

Divide realized cap by circulating supply and you get the realized price, the market's average on-chain cost basis.

The ratio

MVRV = market cap ÷ realized cap. It was introduced in October 2018 by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell (Glassnode metric guide). A reading of 2 means the market values Bitcoin at twice what holders paid on average; a reading below 1 means the average coin is under water.

Glassnode's guide treats readings above 3.5 as historically associated with late-stage bull markets and readings below 1.0 with capitulation and bear-market accumulation, while stressing that these are observations, not rules.

Our calculation: Bitcoin's realized price today

Coin Metrics publishes market cap, MVRV and supply in its free community API. We derived realized cap and realized price from those three series:

Date	BTC price	MVRV	Realized cap	Realized price
Dec 17, 2017 (cycle top)	$19,250	4.25	$75.8B	$4,527
Dec 15, 2018 (cycle low)	$3,185	0.69	$80.4B	$4,613
Nov 10, 2021 (cycle top)	$64,756	2.72	$449.1B	$23,798
Nov 21, 2022 (cycle low)	$15,778	0.78	$389.9B	$20,291
Mar 14, 2024	$71,505	2.68	$525.1B	$26,715
Oct 6, 2025 (record close)	$124,824	2.29	$1,087.8B	$54,577
Jun 30, 2026 (2026 low)	$58,525	1.10	$1,064.1B	$53,070
Oct 25, 2026	$80,039	1.48	$1,087.0B	$54,069
Nov 1, 2026	$78,135	1.45	$1,086.1B	$54,017

Method: realized cap = CapMrktCurUSD ÷ CapMVRVCur; realized price = realized cap ÷ SplyCur. Coin Metrics daily values; prices rounded.

Two things stand out. First, realized cap barely moved through the 2025–2026 drawdown: it sat near $1.09 trillion at the October 2025 peak and is at the same level today, while market cap fell from $2.49 trillion to $1.57 trillion. Holders did not capitulate en masse. Second, at the June 30, 2026 low, price came within about 10% of the realized price (MVRV 1.10) without breaking below it, unlike 2018 and 2022. Even the record exchange hack of late October, which pushed Bitcoin about 4% lower, left realized cap almost unchanged.

Our back-test: how often MVRV reaches each zone, and what followed

Using 4,681 daily Coin Metrics observations from January 1, 2014 to October 25, 2026, we counted the days in each MVRV band and measured Bitcoin's price change over the following 365 days (where available):

MVRV band	Share of days	Days with 12-month data	Median 12-month return	12-month return positive
Below 1.0	13.3%	623	+93%	99%
1.0 to 1.5	28.3%	1,097	+92%	81%
1.5 to 2.0	29.8%	1,257	+82%	60%
2.0 to 3.0	24.3%	1,135	−3%	49%
Above 3.0	4.4%	204	−15%	38%

Our calculation from Coin Metrics PriceUSD and CapMVRVCur. Overlapping 12-month windows, so the observations are not independent; the history covers roughly three full cycles. Past patterns do not predict future returns.

The pattern is clear but the evidence is thin. Low MVRV readings have historically been followed by better returns than high ones, which is what you would expect from a cost-basis metric. But the peaks are shrinking: MVRV topped at 5.88 in 2013, 4.72 in 2017, 3.96 in 2021 and only 2.78 in March 2024. A fixed "sell above 3.5" rule would have missed the last cycle entirely. Today's 1.45 sits in the 1.0 to 1.5 band, which in this small sample included both early recoveries and the middle of long bear markets.

SOPR: spent output profit ratio

MVRV looks at all coins. SOPR looks only at the coins that moved. It was introduced by Renato Shirakashi in April 2019 and is defined as the USD value of outputs when spent divided by their USD value when created (Glassnode SOPR guide).

SOPR above 1: on average, coins moved that day were sold at a profit.
SOPR below 1: on average, they were sold at a loss.
SOPR around 1: break-even. In bull markets, dips to 1 often act as support, because holders refuse to sell at a loss; in bear markets, rallies to 1 often stall, because holders sell as soon as they are back to even.

Worked example

Suppose three UTXOs are spent on the same day, when bitcoin trades at $80,000:

Output	Size	Price when created	Value at creation	Value when spent
A (bought 2023)	0.5 BTC	$30,000	$15,000	$40,000
B (bought Oct 2025)	1.0 BTC	$120,000	$120,000	$80,000
C (bought June 2026)	0.5 BTC	$60,000	$30,000	$40,000
Total	2.0 BTC		$165,000	$160,000

SOPR = $160,000 ÷ $165,000 = 0.97. Two of the three sellers made money, yet the day prints a loss because the large October 2025 buyer dominates. SOPR is value-weighted: a handful of big wallets can swing it.

Variants worth knowing

aSOPR (adjusted): excludes outputs held for less than one hour, filtering out exchange shuffling and change outputs.
STH-SOPR: only outputs younger than 155 days (short-term holders). The most reactive version; it tracks recent buyers' pain or greed.
LTH-SOPR: only outputs older than 155 days (long-term holders). High readings mean old coins are taking large profits, typical late in bull runs.

The 155-day cutoff is a convention used by Glassnode, not a law of nature. Different providers may compute SOPR from slightly different data, so compare like with like.

SSR: stablecoin supply ratio

SSR asks a liquidity question: how much stablecoin "dry powder" exists relative to Bitcoin's size? Glassnode defines it as Bitcoin market cap ÷ stablecoin market cap, using all known and tracked stablecoins (Glassnode SSR guide). A low SSR means stablecoins could buy a larger share of Bitcoin, i.e. more potential buying power; a high SSR means less. For a primer on how USDT and USDC are issued and redeemed, see What Is a Stablecoin?.

Our calculation: SSR at key dates

Date	BTC market cap	USD stablecoin supply	SSR
Nov 10, 2021	$1,221.9B	$139.6B	8.76
Nov 21, 2022	$303.2B	$144.1B	2.10
Mar 14, 2024	$1,405.4B	$146.4B	9.60
Oct 6, 2025	$2,487.9B	$299.7B	8.30
Dec 31, 2025	$1,747.7B	$304.4B	5.74
Jun 30, 2026	$1,173.4B	$304.1B	3.86
Sep 30, 2026	$1,679.3B	$306.3B	5.48
Oct 25, 2026	$1,609.1B	$302.6B	5.32
Nov 1, 2026	$1,571.0B	$298.4B	5.27

Method: Coin Metrics CapMrktCurUSD ÷ DefiLlama total circulating USD-pegged stablecoins (DefiLlama stablecoin API). Our basket differs from Glassnode's, so absolute levels will not match theirs; the trend is what matters.

Stablecoin supply roughly doubled between 2024 and 2025, so today's SSR of 5.27 is far lower than at the 2024 high even though Bitcoin's market cap is larger. The caveat: stablecoin supply is now shrinking, from $306.3 billion on September 30 to $298.4 billion on November 1, a drop of about $8.0 billion (−2.6%) in a month. Over the last week, SSR fell only because Bitcoin fell faster than stablecoin supply. A falling SSR caused by a falling Bitcoin price is not the same signal as one caused by rising stablecoin issuance. We track this liquidity side in our crypto liquidity guide.

How to read the three together

Metric	Question it answers	Data	Reading on Nov 1, 2026	Main blind spot
MVRV	Is the market far above or below its cost basis?	All coins, last-moved price	1.45 (holders ~45% in profit)	Peaks shrink each cycle; off-chain trades invisible
SOPR	Are today's sellers taking profits or losses?	Only coins spent that day	Not in free data; see providers	Noisy; dominated by large wallets
SSR	How much stablecoin buying power exists?	BTC market cap vs stablecoin supply	5.27 (our basket)	Stablecoins also fund DeFi, payments and other coins

A useful habit is to pair the slow metric (MVRV) with a fast one (STH-SOPR) and a liquidity one (SSR). When MVRV is moderate, short-term holders are selling at a loss and stablecoin supply is growing, the market is usually washing out weak hands with fresh liquidity waiting. When MVRV is elevated, long-term holders are taking large profits and stablecoin supply is flat, the opposite applies. None of these combinations is a trading signal on its own.

The limits of on-chain metrics in 2026

ETFs and custodians hide activity. US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold large amounts of BTC with a few custodians. Shares change hands on stock exchanges without any on-chain movement, so a lot of buying and selling never reaches SOPR. Watch fund flows alongside on-chain data in our Bitcoin ETF flows tracker and our guide to ETF flows.
Exchange and custody shuffles create on-chain moves that are not economic sales. Adjusted versions (aSOPR, entity-adjusted metrics) help but rely on provider heuristics. A hack is an extreme case: when stolen coins or emergency withdrawals move, as after the Binance hack, raw metrics can spike without any change in investor behavior.
Derivatives move price without coins moving. Leverage in futures and perpetuals, explained in What Are Perpetual Futures?, can drive sharp swings that on-chain data registers only afterwards.
Macro dominates in risk-off phases. In 2026, rate expectations and the dollar have often mattered more than holder behavior. See how Fed rates affect Bitcoin, our dollar index guide and our Treasury yields guide.
Provider differences. Coin Metrics, Glassnode and others use different supply definitions and adjustments. Always cite the source and method of any number you use.

What to watch next

Realized price (~$54,020): a sustained move of price toward this level would push MVRV toward 1, the zone that marked the 2018 and 2022 lows.
Stablecoin supply: whether the decline (−$8.0 billion since September 30 on DefiLlama) continues or reverses as EU rules on non-MiCA stablecoins approach their January 8, 2027 deadline (see our ESMA stablecoin article).
US CPI on November 10 and the FOMC decision on December 9, 2026: the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, with two officials voting for a hike (Fed statement). Follow both in our CPI tracker and Fed rate decisions tracker.
Next halving (expected around spring 2028): issuance cuts change miner selling pressure, one of the inputs behind SOPR spikes.

FAQ

What is a good MVRV ratio for Bitcoin?

There is no "good" level. Historically, readings below 1 have coincided with bear-market lows and readings above 3.5 with late bull markets, according to Glassnode's guide. In our back-test since 2014, the median 12-month return was +93% after days below 1 and −15% after days above 3, but the peaks have been lower each cycle (2.78 in 2024).

What is Bitcoin's realized price right now?

About $54,020 on November 1, 2026, by our calculation from Coin Metrics data (realized cap of roughly $1.086 trillion divided by 20.11 million BTC in circulation).

What does SOPR below 1 mean?

It means the coins moved that day were, on average, sold for less than they were worth when they were last moved, so sellers realized losses. Sustained readings below 1 often appear during capitulation; quick recoveries above 1 suggest sellers are exhausted.

Is a low stablecoin supply ratio bullish?

A low SSR means stablecoins could buy a larger share of Bitcoin's market cap, so it signals more potential buying power. It does not mean that money will be used for Bitcoin: stablecoins also serve payments, DeFi and trading in other assets.

Where can I get on-chain data for free?

Coin Metrics' community API provides daily market cap, MVRV and supply for Bitcoin; DefiLlama publishes stablecoin supply; public block explorers such as mempool.space show raw transactions. SOPR variants are mostly offered by paid providers such as Glassnode.

Do Bitcoin ETFs make on-chain metrics useless?

No, but they make them incomplete. Coins held by ETF custodians rarely move, so trading of ETF shares does not appear on-chain. Combine on-chain metrics with ETF flow data and derivatives data for a fuller picture.

Sources

Coin Metrics community API: PriceUSD, CapMrktCurUSD, CapMVRVCur, SplyCur (daily, 2013–Nov 1, 2026), retrieved November 2, 2026.
Coin Metrics, State of the Network #41 (March 10, 2020): realized cap and MVRV.
DefiLlama stablecoin API: total circulating USD-pegged stablecoins, retrieved November 2, 2026.
Glassnode: MVRV Ratio; SOPR; SSR.
Federal Reserve, FOMC statement of October 28, 2026.
Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System (2008).

Risk warning: crypto assets are volatile and you can lose all the money you invest. On-chain metrics describe past behavior and do not predict prices. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.